U.S. Surface Imports 2016: Not So Even-Steven
Photo by Gwen Lowe / CC by 2.0By Emerson Schwartzkopf
A small year-to-year dip in the dollar value of U.S. dimensional—hard-surface imports in 2016 belies some major ups-and-downs among different sectors.
The $3.11 billion in overall customs value for dimensional goods last year represents only a nominal drop – 1.4% — from 2015, but major growth in quartz-surface is offset by double-digit drops by granite and travertine.
Last year’s data also present two trends that bear close watching in 2017: the continued expansion of China’s output of quartz surfaces, and the state of Brazil’s granite pipeline to the United States.
What Goes Down ….
The overall numbers on dimensional-surface imports look, at worst, benign. Stone Update analysis of U.S. International Trade Commission data shows the customs value – the amount declared for duties –totals $3,111,568,884, down 1.4% from the $3,156,923,705 reported in 2015.
Those totals include the sectors involved mainly with dimensional hard-surface use in the United States: “worked” (sawn and one-side polished) granite and marble, as well as the quarried surfaces of travertine, other calcareous, non-roofing slate and the catch-all category of other stone. Also included are the manufactured varieties of quartz-bound surfaces.
There’s still a fair bit of controversy in the dimensional-surfaces trade whether the quarried and engineered stone should be mixed into one import number (if not under the same industry umbrella). Without that union, though, 2016 import numbers for the trade would look much worse.
Worked granite remains the biggest slice of dimensional-stone imports, with a customs value of $1.11 billion in 2016. However, that’s 16.2% lower than year-end 2015, and the first annual decline for the sector since the depths of the Great Recession in the late 2000s.
The biggest reason for the downward numbers is Brazil, which went from a recent high of $639.7 million in U.S. shipments in 2015to last year’s $510.4 million. That decrease of 20.2% isn’t the sharpest granite decline among major U.S. suppliers – Italy takes that position with its $92.9 million showing a 24.2% drop – but Brazil’s numbers are more-significant.
It’s simple; Brazil is the biggest player in the U.S. dimensional-granite market. Even with its tumble in customs value, Brazil’s exports to the United States last year represented 45.9% of the total value of dimensional-granite imports. China, with $265.1 million, is a distant second. (China’s granite-export value also declined year-to-year in 2016, but only by 6.1%.)
There’s also a drop in actual volume of granite heading north; Brazil’s 749,296 metric tons last year is down 11.2% from 2015. The top five granite shippers to the United States also showed declines, but Brazil made the big difference in overall 2016 granite tonnage sinking 12.3% from 2015.
To be fair, Brazil’s export performance with other surface sectors showed a much-less-dismal tinge than granite. With the omnibus other-stone category, for example, Brazil not only led all other countries in 2016 U.S. shipments; it also increased volume from the previous year by 56.7%.
Brazil’s problem isn’t a lack of quality or quantity in granite; it’s the economy that’s coming into play with a major export. The country’s gross national product (GNP) fell 2.5% in last year’s fourth quarter – the 11th straight quarter of declining numbers. Add that to general woes of inadequate government funding, the country’s president toppled by impeachment and a financial hangover from last year’s Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro, and a slowdown is inevitable.
One-country dominance also affected U.S travertine imports, where the $201.4 million in customs value last year represented a 24.8% decline from 2014. Turkey provided two-thirds of the overall travertine market with $134 million last year, but that total fell short of 2015’s shipments by 29.3%.
Other travertine exporting countries didn’t help in 2016, either; second-place Mexico sent 16.9% less in year-to-year value at $32.3 million. Other countries shipping more than $1 million in travertine also declined: Italy ($16.9 million, -6.4%), China ($8.5 million, -7.9%) and Peru ($5.7 million, -32.7%).
… and What Comes Up
The major balance in export values came as quartz surfaces continued strong growth, with the $764.9 million in 2016 custom value marking a 25.6% jump from 2015. China provided most of the fuel, rocketing up 77.5% from 2015 with last year’s $296.6 million.
In comparison, the rest of the quartz-exporting companies show a jumbled market. Spain’s $136.1 million last year represented a 7.5% increase, while Canada pushed a nominal 0.9% increase across the northern border with $66.8 million. Italy moved up 4.6% with $19.7 million, while Israel declined 11.5% at $96.8 million. (Since Israeli manufacturer Caesarstone only posted a 0.3% U.S. sales decline last year, lower imports may be showing an increase in production at the company’s plant near Savannah, Ga.)
Vietnam continued consistent growth in 2016 with its $57.9 million (+24.6%), and India moved up 30.3% to #33.5 million. Turkey provided the biggest surprise; its $17.5 million only ranks eighth overall, but the yearly growth in value came to a heady 78.4%.
While quartz surfaces show phenomenal growth, the largest part remains China’s full-throttle boom in the sector. In actual volume, China’s quartz-surface exports of 37.4 ft² beat 2015’s total by 78.3; it’s impressive, but how long can the gains continue to be this big?
The worked marble held its own in 2016, with the $470 million total showing a 1.6% increase from 2015. The move may seem small, but it came while three of the top six exporting lost ground from 2015, including sector leader Italy ($236.6 million, -0.3%), Turkey ($53.9 million, -15.3%) and Spain ($16.1 million, -26.1%).
The offset came from China, growing 10.6% year-to-year to $72.1 million, along with Brazil ($30.5 million, +18.1%) and India ($27.6 million, +57.5%). And Greece – only other country to send more than $10 million of marble to US – grew its value by 10.7% to $15.4 million.
Here’s a recap of all sectors and individual leaders by country, with 2015-2016 changes in parentheses.
2016 Worked Granite
Import value: $1.11 billion (-16.2%)
Import volume: 1.57 million metric tons (-12.2%)
Value leader: Brazil, $510 million (-20.2%)
Volume leader: Brazil, 749,246 metric tons (-11.2%)
2016 Quartz Surfaces
Import value: $764.9 million (+25.6%)
Import volume: 84.2 million ft² (+27.4%)
Value leader: China, $296.6 million (+77.5%)
Volume leader: China, 37.4 million ft² (78.3%)
2016 Worked Marble
Import value: $470.7 million (+1.6%)
Import volume: 412,309 metric tons (-7.2%)
Value leader: Italy, $236.6 million (-0.3%)
Volume leader: Italy, 110,875 metric tons (-4.7%)
2016 Other Stone
Import value: $357.3 million (+15.3%)
Import volume: 429,301 metric tons (+32.7%)
Value leader: Brazil, $152.3 million (+26.3%)
Volume leader: Brazil, 181,122 metric tons (+56.7%)
2016 Travertine
Import value: $201.1 million (-24.8%)
Import volume: 432,084 metric tons (-39.4%)
Value leader: Turkey, $134.0 million (-29.3%)
Volume leader: Turkey, 322,820 metric tons (-47.0%)
2016 Other Calcareous
Import value: $145.4 million (+22.6%)
Import volume: 144,088 metric tons (-0.2%)
Value leader: Italy, $28.6 million (+88.1%)
Volume leader: China, 30,425 metric tons (-16.6%)
2016 Slate
Import value: $61.0 million (-1.8%)
Value leader: China, $33.5 million (-4.9%)
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